"Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output..."

Oil Depletion? It's All In The Assumptions

Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA - August 2, 2005

"Underlying every data analysis and series of conclusions is a collection of assumptions. In order to avoid oil shortages, temporary or longer term, for example, we have to make multiple assumptions about our ability to find, produce, transport, refine and distribute oil (the supply chain). At some point in our analysis, these assumptions have to be tested for credibility. "

The Austin Chronicle - April 29, 2005

"America is over. America is like Wile E. Coyote after he's run out a few paces past the edge of the cliff – he'll take a few more steps in midair before he looks down. Then, when he sees that there's nothing under him, he'll fall. Many Americans suspect that they're running on thin air, but they haven't looked down yet. When they do ... "

a project of the Nation Institute

"The Chevron ad began: 'It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll use the next trillion in 30. Energy will be one of the defining issues of this century. One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over...' "

"We have only a dwindling amount of time to build lifeboats--that is, the needed alternative infrastructure. It has been clear for at least 30 years what characteristics this should have--organic, small-scale, local, convivial, cooperative, slower paced, human-oriented rather than machine-oriented, agrarian, diverse, democratic, culturally rich, and ecologically sustainable.

We have known for a long time that the status quo--a society that is machine-oriented, competitive, inequitable, fast-paced, globalized, monocultural, corporate-dominated--is deadening to the human spirit and ecologically unsustainable."

---November 18, 2004

"In Greenspanomics, the power of money is such that it can turn a finite resource like petroleum into one that can be summoned out of the ground at any quantity and price humans desire, no matter how much has been pumped and consumed beforehand. The natural world becomes a self-replenishing ATM under our command."

---November 24, 2003

The Industrial Demand Destruction Myth

"No myth has been repeated as persistently - or has as little foundation in fact - as the near-universal belief that the much higher-than-expected injections into underground storage that began in late May of this year are attributable to large scale industrial “demand destruction” that purportedly began this Spring and Summer in response to the run-up in natural gas prices that occurred at about the same time."

---November 21, 2003
"Does the U.S. still face a severe natural gas supply crisis during the remainder of this decade?

If there is any remaining doubt regarding this issue, it should be thoroughly dispelled by the National Petroleum Council’s recent Report to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham.

The Council’s Report, entitled “Balancing Natural Gas Policy - Fueling the Demands of a Growing Economy,” presents the results of the most comprehensive assessment of supply and demand of natural gas in the North American market undertaken in many years. To date, it has received surprisingly little attention - despite Alan Greenspan’s warning last May regarding the potential threat to the U.S. economy posed by tighter-than-expected natural gas supplies."

Canadian Energy Viewpoint
--- October 30, 2003

"Several years ago energy investment banker Matt Simmons coined the term “production treadmill” to describe the current state of natural gas production in North America. In simple terms, “production treadmill” describes the situation in which more wells must be drilled every year to keep production flat.

Today the treadmill is accelerating. North American exploration and production companies (E&P’s) will drill a record number of natural gas wells this year only to see production fall. To showcase the speed at which the natural gas production treadmill is now running, I will examine production statistics from four significant sources of natural gas in North America: Canada, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas. These three states represent the largest producers of natural gas in the US."

Petroleum and Natural Gas Watch, Vol. 2, Number 1 --- January 31, 2003

"Can the U.S. economy rebound while the going rate for natural gas escalates in search of a new price floor? Probably not, but that's only a guess. However that dynamic plays out, we Americans are not in a position to control or even influence the outcome. But we may still be able to reduce to some extent our increasing dependency on natural gas. For that reason, we should examine whether it is a wise idea to keep building more gas-fired power plants."

In addition:

Gas Prices Up, But Drillers Seeing Diminishing Returns

Friday December 13, 3:29 pm ET
By John Edmiston,

Fiscal caution slows hunt for U.S. natural gas
By Joseph Silha NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters)

The Coming Natural Gas Crisis
By Andrew Weissman

Analysts: Canadian Natural-Gas Exports to U.S. to Drop
Thursday January 9, 9:19 pm ET
By Dina O'Meara

Petroleum and Natural Gas Watch, Vol. 1, Number 4 --- August 13, 2001

-- Reprinted with permission from the author

"How could it be otherwise with an administration headed by two former oil industry executives and deeply indebted to the likes of Exxon/Mobil, Peabody Coal, and the Southern Company? In return for their generous support during the presidential campaign, the Bush Administration provided their benefactors with a smorgasbord of policy proposals that, when the accounting is done, would amount to a decade-long all-you-can-eat buffet underwritten by present and future taxpayers. "

Uncertainty Over Natural Gas Puts Coal on the Front Burner

Petroleum and Natural Gas Watch, Vol. 1, Number 3 --- March 30, 2001

-- Reprinted with permission from the author

"So far the new millennium has not been following the script that was to be for natural gas. Each day brings fresh indications that the wonder fuel of the 1990's may be in short supply relative to this country's energy appetite."

"If all federal lands and offshore waters were opened to oil development today, there would be a short-term small increase in U.S. production followed by decline. I would expect U.S. crude oil production in 2020 to be 1-1.5 mb/d less than it is today.

With full development of all federal lands and waters, the U.S. may be able to keep crude oil imports at 70-75% in 2020 rather than 75-80%.

If there is a serious desire in the U.S. to decrease dependence on foreign sources of oil, the U.S. will have to significantly reduce consumption of oil. That is the harsh reality."

THE AUTHORS:
This Natural Gas Primer is published by the Community Office for Resource Efficiency. It was written by Randy Udall, CORE's Director, with the able assistance of Steve Andrews, a Denver energy analyst.

MORE INFORMATION?
This pamphlet is designed to provide a quick introduction to our natural gas predicament. If you need additional information, we've compiled our favorite sources, articles, and web sites in a Natural Gas Resource Summary.

To contact the authors: rudall@aol.com, sbandrews@worldnet.att.net.
Or write CORE, Box 9707, Aspen, CO 81612.

Dr. William E. Rees is an ecological economist and a professor at the University of British Columbia's School of Community and Regional Planning, in Vancouver. Dr. Rees co-authored " OUR ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth".

"US consumers enjoy the most underpriced fuel available in any major industrialized country with predictable results. As any economist will tell you, the invariable consequence of underpricing is overuse. Americans live in ever-larger energy-inefficient houses, drive ever-bigger and less fuel-efficient vehicles and are generally squandering in a few decades a non-renewable resource that took tens of millions of years to accumulate.

Even if there were no other issues at hand, it would be economically rational and ecologically beneficial for the federal government to intervene in today's energy market to correct at least the best-documented and non-controversial market imperfections. This alone would result in significantly greater taxes and prices at the pump. "

This article explains why Chinese demand for light-sweet crude has increased dramatically (and will continue to do so for a few more years) because of environmental regulations requiring low-sulfur gasoline and an explosion in car use.

China's refineries are not equipped to effectively "de-sulfur" crude oil as part of the distillation process. This forces the Chinese to import and pay a premium for light-sweet grades of crude oil. The resulting increase in demand for light-sweet crude has made China the "swing-consumer" of world crude oil importers, replacing the USA.

The increased demand for light-sweet crude by China and countries like India has pushed up the price of all grades of crude oil. According to this article, there is more than adequate worldwide supply at the moment for medium, heavy, and sour crudes.